NFL predictions

Ok here are my predictions for the first week of the NFL season (My pick in Bold including the spread):

9/9 8:30 ET At New Orleans -5.5 Minnesota
9/12 1:00 ET At NY Giants -6.5 Carolina
9/12 1:00 ET Miami -3 At Buffalo
9/12 1:00 ET Atlanta -2.5 At Pittsburgh
9/12 1:00 ET At Chicago -6.5 Detroit
9/12 1:00 ET At New England -4.5 Cincinnati
9/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Cleveland
9/12 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -2.5 Denver
9/12 1:00 ET Indianapolis -2 At Houston
9/12 1:00 ET At Tennessee -6.5 Oakland
9/12 4:15 ET Green Bay -3 At Philadelphia
9/12 4:15 ET San Francisco -3 At Seattle
9/12 4:15 ET Arizona -4 At St. Louis
9/12 8:20 ET Dallas -3.5 At Washington
9/13 7:00 ET At NY Jets -2 Baltimore
9/13 10:15 ET San Diego -4.5 At Kansas City

If I was actually going to bet money this week I’d only bet the following games:

Baltimore to cover against the Jets…. who are incredibly over rated.

and that’s about it.  The rest of the lines look just about right, although I could be tempted to put money down on Greenbay to cover and Denver to cover.  In fact I think Denver could win outright against Jacksonville.

I also want to track something this year.  What would happen if you bet the same amount on every underdog to cover, where the spread was less than 6.  I have a suspicion that you would be a winner at the end of the year since there’s so much parody and it is hard enough to pick a winner, let alone who will and wont cover.

As the year goes on I’ll keep posting updates on how my imaginary betting is going.  I’ll pretend bet 10 bucks on each underdog and then pretend bet 50 bucks on the ravens and 25 each on GB and DEN.

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